Clean energy gains at risk as cooking gas nears N2,500/kg 

Cooking gas prices in Nigeria have refused to budge from punishing levels, hovering around N2,500 per kilogram, as a structural mismatch between domestic supply and surging demand threatens to unwind years of progress on clean energy adoption and push millions of households back to firewood and charcoal.

The price, which has more than doubled over three years, reflects a market under siege, one squeezed by inadequate infrastructure, foreign exchange volatility, and a gas export regime that has long prioritised overseas buyers over Nigerian consumers.

“I used to refill my 12.5kg cylinder every month, but now it is too expensive,” said Folake Afolabi, a resident of Agege in Lagos. “We have gone back to using charcoal for most of our cooking because it is what we can afford.”

Similar stories are emerging across the country as families adjust household budgets in response to rising living costs and persistent inflation.

“I had to buy 2 kg of gas inside my 12 kg cylinder because I cannot risk the life of my asthmatic wife in the name of using charcoal for cooking,” said Olowookere on X.

In Akure, Ondo State, Toheeb Agbabiaka, an interior decorator, said he was surprised to discover that some LPG retailers have started selling charcoal alongside cooking gas as consumers increasingly seek cheaper alternatives.

“The last time I went to refill my cylinder, I saw the fuel station attendant also selling charcoal,” Agbabiaka said.

“Many Akure residents now buy charcoal to make up for the shortfall in the quantity of gas they can afford. Instead of filling an entire cylinder, they buy smaller quantities of gas and supplement with charcoal.”

Agbabiaka said he has increasingly relied on an electric cooker to reduce his dependence on cooking gas, although the alternative comes with its own challenges.

“I wake up at midnight sometimes to cook for the day because power supply is also not stable,” he said.

Data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission show that in the first two months of this year, 62 percent of the country’s total gas output was exported, leaving barely 38 per cent for the domestic market.

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For a country where millions of urban and semi-urban households depend on liquefied petroleum gas for daily cooking, that imbalance carries consequences that economists and industry operators say can no longer be absorbed quietly.

“This lopsided supply structure was in place during the years when most Nigerians were not using gas for cooking,” said one industry analyst, who declined to be named, citing ongoing regulatory sensitivities. “But those days are gone. The domestic market has grown significantly, and the same export-first bias is now destabilising prices and access for ordinary consumers.”

Data sourced from an industry report titled Nigeria LPG Production & Supply Matrix (2023–2026) estimated national consumption of cooking gas rose by 20 per cent to 1.8 million metric tonnes in 2026, up from 1.5 million metric tonnes in 2023.

Estimated national supply, by contrast, reached only 1.55-1.65 million metric tonnes over the same period, a gap of at least 150,000 metric tonnes that the market is currently absorbing through price rather than volume.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which entered the LPG supply chain in recent years, has added meaningful domestic output and accelerated a structural shift in Nigeria’s sources of cooking gas.

The report notes that the market “has undergone a major structural transformation between 2023 and 2026,” moving away from its historic dependence on imports and Nigeria LNG Limited toward domestic gas-processing plants, inland gas processors, and NNPC-linked facilities.

Yet the supply additions have not been sufficient to cap prices. Distribution infrastructure — a chronic vulnerability in Nigeria’s downstream energy sector- remains the binding constraint.

The report flags persistent bottlenecks at marine terminals, spiralling trucking costs that eat into retail margins, inadequate cylinder penetration, and exchange-rate volatility that continues to influence the pricing of any imported LPG component.

For producers, export markets, particularly LNG off-take agreements, offer dollar-denominated revenues and contractual price certainty that the domestic market, with its price controls, foreign exchange shortfalls, and payment risks, cannot match.

“Many producers prefer exporting gas through LNG projects because export markets offer more attractive pricing and stable foreign exchange earnings than the domestic market,” said an industry leader who requested anonymity. “As a result, domestic consumers often struggle to access sufficient supply.”

The same source described a gas-gathering and transmission network ill-equipped for the volumes the domestic market now requires.

“Nigeria lacks adequate gas gathering, processing, storage and transmission infrastructure needed to move gas efficiently from production fields to consumers,” he said. “Large volumes of gas produced in remote oil fields cannot be evacuated due to insufficient pipelines, processing plants and distribution networks.”

Regulatory data from the NUPRC and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority point to a catalogue of structural failures compounding the supply deficit, such as pipeline vandalism and insecurity, inadequate investment across the value chain, limited storage capacity, regulatory inconsistencies, and continued gas flaring that destroys volumes that could otherwise reach domestic consumers.

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The Nigerian Association of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Marketers escalated its warnings to federal authorities, describing depot prices as prohibitive.

In a formal statement, the association said its members were paying as much as N25.2 million to N26.2 million for a 20-metric-tonne consignment of cooking gas, costs that inevitably flow through to the retail pump.

“This sad situation has brought untold hardship to millions of Nigerian households, small businesses, food vendors, and low-income families who rely on LPG for daily cooking and livelihood,” the association said, warning that sustained price pressure risks collapsing small-scale LPG retail businesses and triggering broader food inflation as energy costs for vendors rise.

The association’s national president, Barrister Edu Inyang, and executive secretary, Bassey Essien, signed a joint appeal to the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, the NMDPRA and NNPC Ltd, calling for immediate measures to improve availability, increase domestic LPG allocation, streamline importation and storage logistics, and invest in critical distribution infrastructure.

Clean energy gains at risk

The pricing crisis arrives at a delicate moment for Nigeria’s clean energy transition. Government policy over the past decade has pushed millions of households away from kerosene, charcoal, and firewood in favour of LPG, a shift with measurable public health and environmental benefits. Those gains are now reversing at the margins.

“Households cannot refill cylinders, small businesses are struggling to survive, and vulnerable households are returning to firewood and charcoal,” the marketers’ association warned, adding that the consequences extend to deforestation, respiratory health burdens, and Nigeria’s climate commitments under international agreements.

Resolving the crisis will require more than spot interventions. Analysts argue it demands a fundamental rebalancing of Nigeria’s gas export and domestic supply priorities, sustained investment in midstream infrastructure, and a domestic pricing framework that makes the home market competitive with export alternatives — changes that have been discussed for years in Abuja’s policy corridors but have yet to move meaningfully from paper to pipeline.